Transactional analysis 3 All-Star Break Style.
ANNNND we’re back with another transactional analysis. Things were quiet for a while on the trade front but have picked up over the last few weeks so here we go again.
I’m sure the trades will keep coming in the next few weeks and I’ll try to keep up. Also hoping to review some of the other trades made earlier this year and write on the ones that look the oddest a few months later.
League of Evil
|6||WOOT The Wayward Goth||85-71-12||0.542||20||7||13|
|7||Ahead of the Curve||86-74-8||0.536||21||3.5||17.5|
|10||Got The 2020 Vision||55-106-7||0.348||52.5||20||32.5|
|11||We are Young||48-110-10||0.315||58||20||38|
So there’s been a little shake-up since last time. Jmoney remains steadily in first and has opened up his lead. Woot, who was a game out last update, is now in 6th 20 out and Ryan and Malinda have taken over 2nd and 3rd. I’m sitting in 4th and Flash has slid into 5th.
Oh, also – Bloody Sock is now owned by FSAA member Sonic. Mets fan Joe sadly had to go.
- Josh Donaldson (TOR, 3B) traded to Jmoney for Christian Yelich (MIA, LF, CF) and Maikel Franco (PHI, 3B) from Bloody Sock (Sonic)
Trade makes sense for both teams given rankings. I think I prefer Sonic’s side of the deal all in all. I’ve always been a fan of Yelich, and Donaldson’s down year doesn’t make me all that confident. Franco has also struggled, but I still like the 24 year old. That said, Donaldson is only 31 so he’s not done being a productive piece for a contending team for the next few years.
- Rebuild Story (Cubbynole) acquires Austin Meadows(PIT, CF, NA), Jameson Taillon (PIT, SP), Reynaldo López (CWS, SP,RP, NA), and a Round 1 Pick from Springfield Isotopes (Ryan) for Justin Smoak (TOR, 1B), Eric Thames (MIL, 1B,LF,RF), and a Round 6 Pick (from Got The 2020 Vision)
Hm. Ok. Well this makes a ton of sense given teams positions in the rankings. Cubby acquires two young Bucs and Lopez. Meadows has been… mediocre this year at AAA (0.5 WARP), but is a talented prospect who will get time this year, especially if the Pirates trade McCutchen. Taillon is a 25 year old with upside. He has 2.73 ERA this year, but the 3.51 FIP and 3.64 DRA would suggest that’ll go up but still be a good stat line. Lopez was the 81st overall dynasty SP per Baseball Prospectus coming into the year so there’s upside there. Nice haul for a rebuilding squad. Oh. And a first round pick. On Ryan’s side he got two of the first base home-run hitting suprises of 2017. Both have continued hitting homers since they were acquired (though Thames less so). This pair of 30 year olds have revived their careers with the homerun revolution (with the help of the probably juiced baseballs as Ben Lindbergh pointed out at the Ringer). Smoak has already surpassed his career homers number at 23 (previous season high was 20), and before Thames left for Korea his high was 12 and he also has 23 this year. So, Ryan got two revitalized sluggers and a 6th round pick.
All in all this makes sense for both sides. I think I’ll take Cubby’s side long term, and Ryan just needs to hope that his sluggers continue to hit at a torrid pace to help him chase the repeat.
- Cubby making moves for the rebuild! He continues by acquiring Anthony Rendon (WAS, 3B) from Got the 2020 Vision, Bronson, for Ozhaino Albies (ATL, SS, NA)
Albies is the other young Braves shortstop behind Swanson. He’ll probably end up a 2B since he has a weaker arm and the Braves have Swason. In AAA this year he has a .294/.338/.450 slash line with 7 HRs and 21 of 23 in SB. If he puts up those sort of steal number in the majors, Albies is a nice asset (21 steals would be the 5th most in majors this year), but I’d still rather have Rendon. Rendon is still not old at 27. Rendon has finally developed into more the player many of us have expected for a while. He’s got a 3.2 WARP. I like Rendon to continue (if he stays healthy) in a good Nationals lineup. Even for a rebuilding team like Cubby’s Rendon is still young enough. Cubby won this deal hands down in my opinion.
- Cubby continues to make moves. This time I (All Rise) acquired Wade Davis (CHC, CL) (back from Cubby (Davis was part of a package for Carrasco))) for Nick Senzel (CIN, 3B, NA)
I really like Senzel so this was by no ways a no-brainer since I’m not a huge fan of closers and, as Cubby and I are all too aware, the Cubs haven’t been winning a ton, and it’s hard to get saves when your team isn’t winning. But. I’m contending and the saves should help when they do come. Senzel is a nice piece for the rebuilding James.
- And look. It’s Cubby again. He flipped Senzel (CIN, 3B, NA) to We Are Young (Fantasy Aid’s very own founder Andrew) for Rhys Hoskins (PHI, 1B, NA)
Like I said, I like Senzel, so Andrew gets a nice piece out of this deal. Cubby is deep at third (Rendon, Seager, and Machado), but has only Hosmer at 1B. Hoskins is a 24 year old AAA prospect who has been hitting well with 20 bombs with the Iron Pigs at AAA. So a needs based prospect flop. I like Senzel as a prospect more, but I get the positional decision.
- Andrew’s We Are Young traded NL ROY runner-up Ian Happ (CHC, 2B, LF, CF, RF) for Jedd Gyorko (STL, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS) and Carlos Rodon (CWS, SP) from Bronson.
According to Andrew he wasn’t looking to trade Happ (which makes sense given how he’s been better than even those of us who were high on him expected), but he’s a big fan of Rodon, and I imagine that he’s got a little bit of a homer bug with Jedd Gyorko. Anyways, I prefer Bronson’s side of this because I really like Happ and have soured on Rodon some and never liked Gyorko. That said, Gyorko has been good over the last two years and Rodon is still only 24 with good upside. So, it’s not a lopsided deal in either direction, but I lean Bronson’s side. (And yes, my critique of Andrew being a homer in Gyorko is also true of me and Happ so take that however you want.)
Hall of Fame
|6||Ahead of the Curve||82-75-11||0.521||25||13.5||11.5|
|9||WOOT The Wayward Goth||74-86-8||0.464||34.5||22||12.5|
|12||Got The 2020 Vision||56-101-11||0.366||51||17.5||33.5|
Ryan continues his dominance in this league, expanding his 7.5 game lead at the last update to a 18.5 game lead. Cubby took over Wily Vets and has moved them from 10th (Yard Goats in last update) to 2nd. Nicely done Cubby. My confusing team is now in 11th so guess that’s fun. Anyways, on to the trades
- Team America (Jmoney) acquires Alex Wood (LAD, SP) for Bradley Zimmer (CLE, CF) from Pacifiers (Andrew)
Alex Wood has been great this year with a 1.67 ERA and a 2.45 DRA. Zimmer hasn’t been great, but still has upside as a prospect, especially if he can cut down on the strikeouts. Wood is still only 26 so if his success continues this is a really great get for Jmoney both short term and long-term. So, bluntly, this trade could go either way. Right now I lean Wood and like Jmoney’s side of the deal, but, especially given Wood’s injury history, there are a lot of unknowns still here.
- Andrew gets Anthony Rendon (WAS, 3B) from Got the 2020 Vision for Ozhaino Albies (ATL, SS, NA)
This is the same exact deal as in LOE with Andrew getting Rendon instead of Cubby and Bronson keeps working for his clone teams. I still prefer Rendon and, just like with LOE, Andrew gets a young guy still. Just see what I wrote above.
- Cubby gets Robinson Cano (SEA, 2B) from Dumpster Fire (me) for Wil Myers (SD, 1B, RF)
So my team is in the tank at the all-star break. Its been an odd season. I still really like the core I have so I’m not going to tear down all the way, but I’m willing to sell off some older pieces. Cubby is contending and Cano is really good and consistent so I figured he’d like that offensive upgrade for his championship run because Flags Fly Forever.
|2||Ahead of the Curve||92-63-13||0.586||3||0||3|
|9||Kool Papa Bells||74-87-7||0.461||24||22||2|
Repeat Story (Cubby) has jumped into first, though JD is still right there as well. There have been some other minor shifts and Chumps (David who took over for Joe) has also righted the ship for that team
- Ham Dinner acquired Corey Dickerson (TB, LF) from Bronson for Louis Severino (NYY, SP, RP) and Maikel Franco (PHI, 3B)
Yep. Checks out. Bronson gets too young pieces for his young team (seriously this team is gonna be scary if most of his players pan out). Bronson’s seemed to have a thing for Serverino for a while and that is being rewarded now as Severino has a 2.88 DRA per Baseball Prospectus. Franco is having a down year but the kid still has a ton of upside. Alternatively, Jmoney gets Dickerson who is putting up nice numbers down in Tampa and Jmoney is making a run.
?TOP PLAYER TRADED ALERT ?
- Cubby, Repeat Story?, gets PAUL FREAKING GOLDSCHMIDT from Andrew for Cody Bellinger (LAD, 1B, RF), the easy NL ROY, and Derek Fisher (HOU, LF, RF, NA)
Given positions in contention it makes sense. Goldy is still a top 10 player in dynasty. Bellinger though has soared up. Bellinger is still only 21 and Goldy, though feels like he’s been around forever, is still only 29. So, both Andrew and James are going to get a lot of production at first for years to come from these guys. But for Cubby, putting Goldy in the lineup going for a repeat is huge. Fisher is still a top prospect and a nice second piece here. Given the contention cycles it’s close to filling the gap between Bellinger and Goldy. Time will tell on this deal I guess, but since Flags Fly Forever Cubby’s gotta go for it and, as Tom always says, you gotta break some eggs to make an omelet.
- I, Krismas Time, acquired Andrew Miller (CLE, RP) from Andrew for Nick Senzel (CIN, 3B, NA)
I like Senzel a lot, but I’m contending and Miller is a great bullpen piece. He’s been an amazing reliever with good ratios and gives me holds. He briefly was going to close right after this deal but that didn’t really happen much. This was really a contention driven deal. Top prospect for top reliever.
- And then I moved Miller. I acquired Yu Darvish (TEX, SP) and Ryan Braun (MIL, LF) from Kool Papa Bells for Andrew Miller (CLE, RP) and Josh Bell (PIT, 1B, RF)
In this pitching environment top starters are few and far between. You’ve got the Scherzer, Kershaw, Sale class of pitchers and then a big gap. Darvish is in that next tier and I was happy to add him to my rotation. Braun is having a good year as well. I’m not a fan of Braun as a person at all. But the dude can hit and in fantasy you can ignore personality more. I’m a big Bell fan and don’t like giving him up, but it made sense in the context. Miller was moved again which is alright even those he’s one of the few relievers I actually value because of his ratios and consistency. But Evan gets a top reliever and a really good young hitter from Pittsburg. Deal makes sense to me obviously and I think Evan gets a nice return for his team.
- Ryan acquires Brandon Drury (ARI, 2B, 3B, LF, RF), Jose Peraza (CIN, 2B, SS, LF, CF), Robbie Ray (ARI, SP), and Sean Newcomb (ATL, SP) for Brian Dozier (MIN, 2B) and Jacob deGrom (NYM, SP) from Ahead of the Curve
I like JD’s return here. He’s close on Cubby’s heels for first place right now and just got one of those top starters I mentioned above in deGrom. As long as the Mets don’t break him and then pretend they didn’t he’s gonna be a stud for a long time. Dozier isn’t amazing, but he’s still a very solid producer for a contender. In return for the 29 year old DeGrom and 30 year old Dozier, the last place Ryan gets 24 year old Drury, 23 year old Peraza, 25 year old Ray, and 24 year old Newcomb. Drury has continued to be a solid player and should increase his value. Peraza still has a lot of upside and is providing good value from steals even while struggling some. Ray has been surprising this year but has been solid and should be a nice piece for Ryan going forward, and Newcomb still also provides some upside.
- Ryan continued his rebuild and got a first and second round pick from Andrew for Alex Colome (TB, RP), Chris Devenski (HOU, SP, RP), and a 5th and 6th round pick.
Andrew is still alive in the race here with a lot of baseball left to play and got two really good relievers. Ryan turned two relievers into two first round picks that should help accelerate his rebuild. Seems like a pretty typical solid all around trade.
- ANNNND more Ryan. Ryan continues to ship off relievers. This time trading Aroldis Chapman (NYY, RP) and a 4th round pick to Ham Dinner for a first round pick and Zach Godley (ARI, SP, RP)
Makes sense again with the other deals. He moves another reliever, the best of his relievers moved thus far, for another first round pick and Godley who has been, well, godly. Godley is doing well this year. He is already 27, but has pitched pretty well this year. And Jmoney gets a top closer on a good Yankee team.
- And last but not least. Cubby continues to prepare for this title defense with Miguel Cabrera (DET, 1B), Ian Kinsler (DET, 2B), Andrew Miller (CLE, RP) and a fourth round pick from Kool Papa Bells for Eric Hosmer (KC, 1B), Ian Happ (CHC, 2B, LF, CF, RF), Jake Faria (TB, SP) and a 1st round pick.
Holy Miller moving. Makes sense though. Miller’s not gonna do much for Evan and will help out a contender. James also adds the right side of the Tigers old infield to beef up his offense with two solid, though not as spectacular as before, offensive options. Evan gets the pick upgrade, moving to the 1st, and also gets Hosmer, the 27 year old confusing as heck first basemen in KC, Ian Happ, who has been really good in Chicago and could not have made Cubby happ-y to trade him. Evan also picks up Faria, a 23 year old who in 38 1/3 innings has pitched to a 2.11 ERA. The 3.16 FIP and 4.03 DRA don’t exude confidence, but he’s a solid pick up along with Hosmer, Happ, and the 1st.